Cocoa is heading into 2026 with one big question: does the market finally get a clean supply recovery, or do we repeat another year where a small disruption turns into a major price move?
The most useful baseline I have seen in an official forecast is the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook (October 2025), which puts cocoa at $8.00/kg in 2025 and $7.50/kg in 2026 (nominal USD). That implies easing, not normalization. It is still a high-price environment by historical standards. (World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, Oct 2025, Table 1)
What follows are the five drivers that matter most for 2026 and how to translate them into a procurement plan that protects availability without locking the whole year at the wrong level.
West Africa supply: recovery is possible, but it is not “fixed”
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana still set the tone for the global balance. The story for 2026 is not simply “prices were high, so supply will rise.” Production is constrained by plantation age, disease pressure, and how uneven weather has become in the region.
USDA’s sector reporting for Côte d’Ivoire describes how early-season optimism can fade quickly when conditions shift, including the role of erratic rainfall, dry winds (Harmattan), and crop health dynamics. (USDA FAS, Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa Sector Overview, Mar 7, 2025) Ghana’s sector overview makes a similar point: mid-crop outcomes are highly sensitive to rainfall timing and shortfalls. (USDA FAS, Ghana: Cocoa Sector Overview, Mar 31, 2025)
What this means for buying: if you wait for perfect confirmation that the recovery is real, you usually end up paying the market’s “relief rally” in reverse. A better approach is to start covering volume when physical availability improves, but keep meaningful flexibility in case production disappoints again.
Stocks: low buffers make the market jumpy, even if the trend is down
This is the most underappreciated driver among non-trading buyers. Low inventories turn normal uncertainty into violent price moves.
In its August 2025 Quarterly Bulletin, ICCO reported a very tight balance sheet for 2023/24, including:
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World gross production: 4.368 million tonnes
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World grindings: 4.818 million tonnes
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Supply deficit: 494,000 tonnes
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End-of-season stocks: 1.270 million tonnes
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Stocks-to-grindings ratio: 26.4%
(ICCO, Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Aug 29, 2025)
What this means for buying: even if 2026 averages are lower, the path is unlikely to be smooth. When stocks are thin, you should assume spikes and air pockets. Your procurement process should be designed for that, instead of trying to “call the bottom.”
Demand and grindings: high prices do change behavior
Cocoa demand is resilient, but it is not immune. When prices surge, the system responds through a mix of retail price increases, promotional pullbacks, reformulation, and slower grindings.
ICCO’s balance sheet in the same August 2025 bulletin shows grindings down year-on-year (4.818 million tonnes), which is consistent with a market where demand is adjusting under price pressure and availability constraints. (ICCO, Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Aug 29, 2025)
What this means for buying: a 2026 sell-off can become self-reinforcing if grindings stay soft while production rebounds. If you buy everything early because “it must go back up,” you are taking a directional bet. If you buy in layers, you stay covered without needing to be right on timing.
Regulation and traceability: EUDR timing shifts risk into 2026 contracting
For EU buyers, compliance readiness affects both availability and delivered cost. In December 2025, the European Parliament adopted changes that postpone application of the EU deforestation regulation:
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Large operators and traders: 30 December 2026
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Small operators: 30 June 2027
(European Parliament, Press Release, “Deforestation law: Parliament adopts changes to postpone and simplify measures,” Dec 11, 2025)
What this means for buying: 2026 becomes a transition year where documentation capability and supplier systems start to matter commercially. You should expect spreads between “document-ready” supply chains and everyone else, even before enforcement begins.
Climate volatility: not a headline risk, a recurring operational risk
If you want the cleanest “official” framing of climate as a cocoa price driver, UNCTAD has been explicit: climate-related shocks in West Africa are a major contributor to recent cocoa price surges, including heat and rainfall disruption. (UNCTAD, “Chocolate price hikes: A bittersweet reason to care about climate change,” Mar 28, 2024)
What this means for buying: treat climate like a persistent volatility premium. Even if the base case is lower prices, your procurement plan should assume that weather can still create sharp rallies.
How to plan cocoa procurement for 2026 without overpaying or risking supply
Here is a buying structure I use in practice because it is boring, repeatable, and it works in volatile ag markets.
Anchor your internal budget to an official baseline, then build bands
Start with the World Bank’s 2026 baseline $7.50/kg as a reference point, not as “the answer.” (World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, Oct 2025, Table 1)
Then set three internal price bands for your business:
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a level where you are happy to lock coverage
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a level where you buy partially
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a level where you prioritize continuity over price
This stops ad hoc decision-making when the market becomes emotional.
Buy in tranches tied to operational triggers, not calendar dates
A practical split for many B2B buyers is:
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35–45% covered when supply looks better and offers meet spec
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30–40% added once the physical market confirms improvement (availability, lead times, rejection rates)
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20–30% kept flexible for weather shocks, customer demand changes, or basis dislocations
This fits the reality of a tight-stock market. (ICCO, Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Aug 29, 2025)
Separate “market direction” from “delivered reality”
Even if futures ease, delivered cost can stay firm because of premiums, logistics, or compliance friction.
Diversify for resilience, not for theory
Diversification can be simple: two approved origins, two qualified suppliers, staggered shipment windows. In a climate-volatility environment, optionality is not a luxury. It is what prevents forced spot buying. (UNCTAD, Mar 28, 2024)
